John Hennessy III,
P.E.
Energy‐related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 89 million metric tons(MMmt), from 5,259 MMmt in 2015 to 5,170 MMmt in 2016. Although real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.5% over that period, other factors contributing to energy-related CO2 emissions more than offset the growth in GDP, leading to a 1.7% decline in energy-related CO2.
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U.S. gas production was thought to be in permanent decline as recently as 2005. The advent of shale gas over the past decade has, however, dramatically turned this around and increased production to all-time highs. Notwithstanding this, U.S. gas production peaked in mid-2015 and shale gas production peaked in early 2016, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The question is: How fast and how much can production grow in the future given higher prices and a return to higher rates of drilling?
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Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is estimated to have grown by 1.4 million b/d in 2015. EIA expects global consumption to increase by 1.5 million b/d in 2016 and by 1.4 million b/d in 2017, mostly driven by growth in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non-OECD consumption growth was 0.9 million b/d in 2015, and it is expected to be 1.2 million b/d in 2016 and 1.3 million b/d in 2017.
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UNITED STATES ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
This study examines supply, demand, and distribution of transportation fuels in Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5, a region that includes the western states of California, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii. For this study, transportation fuels include gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.
UNITED STATES ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
Power sector CO2 emissions declined by 363 million metric tons between 2005 and 2013, due to a decline in coal’s generation share and growing use of natural gas and renewables, but the CO2 emissions are projected to change only modestly from 2013 through 2040 in the 3 baseline cases used in this report. Relative to the AEO2015 Reference case, the projected emissions trajectory is somewhat lower in the High Oil and Gas Resource case baseline, which has cheaper natural gas, and somewhat higher in the High Economic Growth case, which has higher electricity use.
This month, Securing America’s Future Energy announced its inaugural “Energy Security Prize” competition for emerging and advanced technologies with the ability to significantly reduce America’s dependence on oil. The competition is currently open and accepting applications. Winners will revealed at SAFE’s upcoming energy conference, “OPEC Oil Embargo +40: A National Summit on Energy Security,” which will be held at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C. on October 16, 2013.
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