This week’s discussion on the highly respected National Journal’s Transportation Blog has been prompted by a recent report of the U.S. Conference of Mayors assessing the economic benefits of high-speed rail. You can look up the responses by the blog’s participating contributors at http://transportation.nationaljournal.com/2010/07/will-highspeed-rail-drive-busi.php Our own contribution is reproduced below.
Ken Orski (korski@verizon.net)
Editor/Publisher
Innovation NewsBriefs (celebrating our 21st year of publication)
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The Accidental Legacy of the High-Speed Rail Program
In our June 30 NewsBrief, “The Rail Debate Intensifies,” (available at https://www.infrastructureusa.org/the-rail-debate-intensifies/ ) we speculated whether the Administration’s $8 billion high-speed rail initiative is indeed a first “down payment” on a multi-generational commitment to create a network of high-speed lines or whether it is simply a one-shot initiative that will only marginally increase passenger rail speeds in a few rail corridors. Our conversations with colleagues in the transportation community and the railroad industry suggested that the weight of expert opinion is favoring the latter scenario.
Many of the experts we had consulted noted that the future of true high-speed rail in America depends on finding a dedicated source of funds that could sustain the program over a period of several decades. Because building new high-speed rail lines would require massive sums of money and long-term financial commitments, the program could not be placed on a pay-as-you-go basis and left to the vagaries of the annual congressional appropriations process. However, securing a dedicated funding source would require broad-based public support. Are there enough potential intercity rail users in America to engender popular grassroots support for a tax-financed rail fund like the Highway Trust Fund? Would there be enough users and beneficiaries of high speed rail service to generate the billions upon billions in tax revenue necessary to fund a network of dedicated high-speed rail lines? And will future presidents and Congresses share this Administration’s enthusiasm for high-speed rail or will they be obliged to focus attention and scarce resources on other, more urgent infrastructure priorities? Despite the rosy expectations of the U.S. Conference of Mayors as expressed in its June 14 report (“The Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail on Cities and their Metropolitan Areas”) and despite the confident rhetoric of some industry and government HSR boosters, there are huge uncertainties concerning all three questions.
That is why most informed observers we have talked to have expressed skepticism about the prospect of President Obama’s high-speed rail initiative sparking a renaissance in intercity passenger rail transportation. A more likely legacy of the HSR program will be a series of improvements in Class I rail infrastructure–assuming a successful resolution of the current impasse concerning the terms on which the Class I railroads are willing to participate in this program. The planned improvements as detailed in the Administration’s HSR announcements —upgrading track and signal systems, eliminating grade crossings, refurbishing existing stations, deploying positive train control technology—will not only benefit the private railroad companies but also enhance the overall capacity of the nation’s freight carrying infrastructure since freight railroads move 40 percent of the nation’s intercity freight (as measured in ton-miles.)
In the end, therefore, the HSR initiative could turn out to be of considerable economic benefit to the nation — but not quite in the way the program has been sold to the public and not exactly in the manner it is still being envisioned by the Conference of Mayors and other passenger rail boosters. Improvements in Class I freight railroad performance rather than a substantial enhancement in the quality of intercity passenger service is likely to be the main consequence of the $8 billion “high-speed” rail initiative.
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C. Kenneth Orski is a public policy consultant and former principal of the Urban Mobility Corporation. He has worked professionally in the field of transportation for over 30 years, in both the public and private sector. He is editor and publisher of Innovation NewsBriefs, now in its 21st year of publication.
Tags: C. Kenneth Orski, HSR, Innovation Briefs, Innovation Newsbriefs, Ken Orski
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